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2024 Election

Bad News for Democrats: Poll Shows Trump Outperforming Potential Biden Replacements



As the 2024 presidential race heats up, new poll results are causing significant concern among Democrats. A recent poll conducted by Data for Progress and published by FiveThirtyEight presents a grim picture for the party, highlighting the challenges they face in the upcoming election.

The poll compares former President Donald Trump against several potential Democratic candidates who could replace President Joe Biden should he decide to withdraw from the race. The results are alarming for Democrats, as Trump outperforms all the potential contenders.

Poll Results: Trump vs. Potential Democratic Candidates

The poll, conducted on June 28 among 1,011 likely voters, reveals the following head-to-head matchups:

  • Cory Booker: 44% vs. Trump 46% (Trump +2)
  • Amy Klobuchar: 43% vs. Trump 46% (Trump +3)
  • Josh Shapiro: 43% vs. Trump 46% (Trump +3)
  • Pete Buttigieg: 44% vs. Trump 47% (Trump +3)
  • J.B. Pritzker: 43% vs. Trump 46% (Trump +3)
  • Gavin Newsom: 44% vs. Trump 47% (Trump +3)
  • Gretchen Whitmer: 44% vs. Trump 46% (Trump +2)
  • Kamala Harris: 45% vs. Trump 48% (Trump +3)
  • Joe Biden: 45% vs. Trump 48% (Trump +3)

These results indicate that none of the surveyed Democratic candidates are currently polling ahead of Trump. Even the most competitive matchups, such as Booker and Whitmer, still place Trump ahead by two points.

Why Democrats Are Panicking

Several factors contribute to the Democrats’ growing anxiety:

  1. Biden’s Age and Health Concerns: As highlighted in a recent article, President Biden’s age and health have been under scrutiny, raising questions about his ability to serve another term. This has led to increased speculation about his potential withdrawal from the race.
  2. Weak Alternative Candidates: The poll results underscore the lack of a strong alternative to Biden within the Democratic Party. Each potential candidate, including prominent figures like Vice President Kamala Harris and California Governor Gavin Newsom, trails Trump in head-to-head matchups.
  3. Trump’s Resurgence: Despite his controversial tenure, Trump maintains a solid base of support. His lead over every potential Democratic challenger signals a significant resurgence that Democrats will struggle to counter.
  4. Voter Sentiment: According to Data for Progress, many voters believe that Biden is too old to be president. This sentiment extends to the alternative candidates, who do not inspire enough confidence among the electorate to overcome Trump’s lead.

Implications for the 2024 Election

The implications of these poll results are profound. If Biden withdraws, the Democratic Party will need to rally quickly around a new candidate who can unite the party and appeal to a broader electorate. However, the current field of potential candidates appears ill-equipped to defeat Trump, raising concerns about the party’s strategy and prospects for 2024.

Moreover, these results could embolden Trump and his supporters, potentially increasing his momentum and solidifying his position as the frontrunner in the Republican primary. For Democrats, the challenge is clear: they must either find a way to bolster Biden’s candidacy or identify and support a new contender capable of taking on Trump.