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2024 Election

Trump Leads Biden 50% to 32% Among Likely Iowa Voters



Despite his recent felony conviction in New York, former President Donald Trump maintains a substantial lead over incumbent President Joe Biden among likely Iowa voters. The latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll indicates that Trump garners 50% of the vote compared to Biden’s 32%.

This survey, conducted from June 9-14, also shows Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 9%, with Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver receiving 2%. Additionally, 3% of respondents indicated they would vote for another candidate, 1% would abstain from voting, and 3% remain undecided.

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These results come in the wake of Trump’s conviction on 34 felony counts related to hush money payments made to Stormy Daniels before the 2016 election. Interestingly, the poll numbers have shown little change since February, when Trump led Biden 48% to 33%.

The poll reveals that a significant portion of voters are steadfast in their choices. Among those who have decided on a candidate, 67% are firm in their decision, while 29% might still be persuaded. Specifically, 76% of Trump supporters and 81% of Biden supporters are resolute in their choices. In contrast, a large majority of Kennedy and Oliver supporters are open to changing their minds, at 82% and 87%, respectively.

The poll surveyed 806 Iowa adults, including 632 likely voters, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for the overall sample and 3.9 percentage points for likely voters.

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As Election Day approaches, this latest data underscores the challenges Biden faces. While Trump’s legal battles continue, his support among Iowa voters remains robust, reflecting his enduring appeal within the Republican base. Biden’s approval rating among all Iowans stands at 28%, with 67% disapproving of his performance. This approval rating has declined slightly from February’s 29% and March 2023’s 30%, indicating a consistent downward trend.

These figures highlight the uphill battle Biden faces to sway undecided and swing voters in the coming months, as Trump’s popularity remains largely unaffected by his recent legal troubles.